The End of History revisited
Some twenty years ago Francis Fukuyama published his claim that the victory of liberal democracy over communism and similar totalitarian ideologies marked the end of history. Most of all his book marked the end of a particular phase in history – the dominance of East (communism) versus West (liberal capitalism) and forty years of fierce technological and military competition, bringing us – on balance – accelerated advancement in all fields. In the twenty years that have since passed many new developments emerged on the world scene: the new thrust of our information and communication age, globalization and its adversities, especially on the axis between the Arab and Western countries and so on. As a result, the idea of a finite history has lost much of its credibility. Major challenges lie ahead if we wish to avoid massive political but also natural disasters – the possibility of one feeding the possibility of the other.
Thus, however we define ‘history’, the human story is very likely to continue without any prospect of an end but the very end itself. We could say this almost by definition, assuming we retain our ability to record and store our life’s accounts until such final moment one day in a probably very distant future (*).
With this prospect in mind I am not necessarily looking at the course of history as we generally know it: the rise and fall of civilizations, the tales of peoples, nations and great ideologies, the faits et gestes of kings, emperors and presidents or of war, conquest and expansion. In these classical dimensions many histories have already passed or “ended”. We no longer live in a world dictated by the whims of absolute monarchs or by grave mass superstition and religious ceremony such as the world of the Pharaohs or the Aztecs. I am rather more looking at the story of humanity in a broader sense, its general advancement in many different fields, such as science, arts and culture at many different levels and in many different expressions.
However, it is obvious that we cannot dissociate one from the other. The advancement of our space technology and everything derived from it would have been unthinkable without the pressure of the Cold War – the competition between the US and the Soviet Union – in this critical period. We could expand this observation to most other fields no doubt. The broader social, political and economic drama of humanity is an essential inspiration for the arts, for scientific developments and so on.
Thus, if it were true that “history” would end – as Fukuyama once contended – all other endeavors of humanity would come to a grinding halt. There would be no more inspiration for advancement or innovation – or the retention of certain beliefs and practices - in any field. We would return to an existence of no more interest than for instance the existence of the Neanderthal or the baboons. Human kind being the way it is, I believe this is a highly unlikely prospect, however our existence may be disrupted by unforeseen disasters or – alternatively – however new species may still evolve out of mankind (intelligent beings evolving from other species, though theoretically plausible, being a very, very remote prospect). There is much history still ahead of us in yet unthinkable dimensions and of a scope beyond our current imagination. We believe we can foresee everything, but it is obvious we can not. We may speculate about certain aspects – technology, biology, space travel and so on – but there is no way that our future can be foretold in a remotely credible way. Why, if we look back at our own lives, how much of it was foreseeable when we were young? Very little, I would say. I have had many visions even in my early youth of the future, let’s say: the year 2000. But the actual turn of the Millennium was vastly different, in dimensions which could not remotely be foreseen back in the sixties or even in the seventies. In the mean time our own life’s story is ongoing until the very end.
The metaphor of our individual lives is a pertinent one. In our own mind we live forever, until the reality of our mortality – finally - overtakes us. And many of us invest as much in the present as in our (personal) legacy. We want to be remembered and, if possible, leave a lasting footprint for the world after us. We do not readily accept that, one day sooner or later, there will no longer be a single trace of our existence. This, I believe, is true for mankind as a whole. So let’s think of humanity as a story unfolding in infinite space and time, indeed until the very end – one day sooner or – hugely - later.
All of this for me is a starting point, not a final argument, in considering this challenging phenomenon called “the (distant) future”, the scope and potential of humanity’s story. It liberates my mind from today’s prevailing paradigms. I am not particularly interested in liberalism or capitalism per se. I am interested in every dimension on which humanity can put its mind and skills. If mass air transportation was inconceivable up to the early days of the twentieth century, how much that is inconceivable today can still be achieved in the future? We can not draw any definitive line, perhaps even including the speed of light.
13,5 Billion years in a nutshell: a mere prelude to what is to come: infinite darkness
Some ninety percent of our Universe – today called “dark matter” – is still little understood. We are crawling towards some understanding of it, but much is still to be uncovered. We are touching quantum mechanics but haven’t yet reached the revolution it will no doubt trigger once we’re there (wherever and whatever “there” is). Solving the issues of climate, ecological balance, future energy sources, mass population and so on can be seen as major challenges for this century but over time they will just seem mere steps in between from the primitive technologies and institutions of the industrial revolution to the advancements of future human civilizations if not the entire future global community. This will hold true even if along the way the process of advancement is disrupted either my major natural disasters or by war and conflict. The actual scenario is irrelevant (we can speculate as much as we want, but we will essentially remain ignorant). Of course, disruptions may matter if they get us close to total extinction and a total loss of knowledge, perhaps even of history itself.
The future therefore is vastly more interesting – in every dimension – than was pictured in Fukuyama’s book picturing something close to the end of it or close to some kind of equilibrium freezing our ideas and concepts of a truthfully happy human society. For indeed, the pursuit of happiness, even in our own lives, is a journey without end. Also, I believe that our contemporary Science Fiction is producing tales of a highly repetitive nature, without much advancement and without enhancing its scope beyond – essentially very boring - battles between entire galaxies.
A neverending dream: human flight
Finally, I would say it is equally interesting – and pertinent – to dwell in the past as it is to travel through space and time and visualize the various potential futures – generally but especially in particular fields or dimensions. Will religion disappear or will it recapture its hold on the known world? If so, how would this be, or what could trigger it? At what time, if any, will nation states disappear behind the curtain or will they reassert – re-group – themselves? How will our private and collective mobility evolve, including our mobility beyond the confines of the planet Earth.
How long will the House of Orange reign in The Netherlands?
On average Earth’s (animal) species have a lifetime of some four million years. Humanity – homo sapiens – has just started, covering a mere two hundred thousand years, or – if we want to include its predecessor homo erectus – not more than a million and a half. Hence, we are not even finished with the groundwork. All of our past history is a succession of primitive experiments (each with their own greatness of course). We live in the prologue of human history, not in its epilogue.
I hope this essay serves as an inspiration especially for young people. Nothing is finished. Much remains to be done. Humanity requires our greatest ambitions without restriction here and now or any time in the future.
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(*) I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in the future, mankind will make sure that - whatever the fate of planet Earth and its inhabitants - the memory of their existence will not be lost in the Universe. In fact, we already sent a probe - Voyager I, launched in 1977 - with exactly this purpose, and no doubt many will follow.
