Who will dig up Liberty, and when?
Almost every civilization thus far in human history crumbled. It either went down into total oblivion or it disintegrated into a state of barbarism out of which new advancement arose. But humanity does not perish. The genes of the ancient are still among us. It is an interesting topic aside: where did the genes of the Sumerians or of the senators of Rome migrate? Most of us can barely trace our forbears beyond some hundred or two hundred years, let alone thousands of years. Nonetheless, the legacy of antiquity is all around us. The rise and fall of civilizations do not preclude the transfer and continuity of their achievements. Each new civilization or cultural tradition sooner or later absorbed traditions and inventions of a previous one. The ascent of Western Europe is a strong case in point. This is not merely because Rome retained its position as a center of authority and spiritual development but also because of the Renaissance, when the remains, in letters and thought, of antiquity were again dug up to inspire the birth of new culture, science and political thinking. It was a re-birth with profound consequences for the further advancement of our civilization, reaching well beyond the confines of our continent. If a Roman senator of antiquity would visit Washington D.C. today he would recognize many of its elements, its architecture, the tradition of its monuments and probably the atmosphere and proceedings on Capitol Hill too. In other words: he would start to wonder whether in fact Rome had fallen at all (see my previous posting: Much will change, much remains the same).
If ancient Egypt survived, we might have seen the same thing over and over
The Rome that we know of antiquity perished by manifold forces both from the inside and the outside; the weight of its bureaucracy, the decadence of its elite, exhaustion of its innovative power, the devolution of its authority and the massive demographic pressure forcing its way through the eastern borders. In our present-day ears these factors ring a familiar bell. All of them have their contemporary parallel. We may already feel severely disturbed by the pressures coming out of the Arabic world and its impact on our civilization, but if we seriously ponder such concerns then we should be concerned in at least similar measure by many other - inside - factors too, similar to those which plagued Rome in its final stage, such as our consumerism and the decadence it projects, our hedonist popular culture, the mounting disparity between the wealthy and the poor, our stagnating technology – that is: where today it matters most; the exhaustion of our key resources, the diminishing power of persuasion of our leaders and so on. One could paint a very bleak picture of our current state of civilization and of the prospects of its survival and predict that nothing less than that the fate of Rome awaits us.
Still, all of the factors mentioned played a role one way or the other at previous stages of our history too, and they didn’t bring us the irreversible apocalypse of preceding civilizations. More than any other our western civilization has demonstrated the capability of renewal and re-birth from within, and like no other it has come to cultivate this capacity as is manifest in its present-day popular culture, which by and large celebrates the power of youth. We can make a long list of weaknesses but we would do great injustice to ourselves if we didn’t count our blessings too. Similarly, we wouldn’t have arrived at our current (st-)age of global information and communication without our innate commercial and intellectual acumen (and freedom), elements severely lacking in any civilization that has preceded us. However much we may feel stagnation today, our innovative potential is everything but exhausted. Our modern western world is a mere hundred years old. Why would it perish any day soon, sooner – by comparison – than all other previous civilizations?
Is the nuclear age over, or is it just beginning?
The answer is: there is no need for any imminent oblivion, if only we seriously face the challenges. They are unprecedented too. That is the key. We know that in fifty to hundred years time no drop of oil will be left, but as yet no substantive alternative (i.e. an alternative that is safe and without severe negative side-effects) is in sight that will allow the undisturbed continuation of our present way of life. What power will drive us, what material will replace our plastic and all other vital derivates of fossil carbohydrates? Unless we find a way to re-cycle every atom that goes through our hands, a principle which has kept nature going for many hundreds of millions of years, the prospect of our continuity is very gloomy indeed, almost inconceivable. The newly rising resistance against nuclear energy and the actual uncertainties that surround this potentially infinite power source are indicative of the long road still ahead either to solve these uncertainties or to find a viable alternative. In my own mind energy is the outstanding factor affecting the outlook of our western world, but there are quite a few other, in part associated, factors which need to be addressed at the same time, demography most certainly heading the list.
Until the Middle Ages much of what happened in the story of human civilization could be seen as ongoing variations of just a few unchanging themes. Progress in almost every dimension – human well being, the organization of social and political institutions, the evolution of public governance, technology – was very slow indeed. Today we live at the pinnacle of exponential progress; it has changed the globe beyond recognition. Our future progress will be measured first of all in terms of the sustainability of where we are today. Every inventiveness, every youthful vigor, and every bit of true civilization will be needed to achieve this.
But then, I am reminded of one the main messages of the much acclaimed television series of the late nineteen sixties, the monumental BBC documentary of Sir Kenneth Clark “Civilisation”: the one decisive element, he told us, of a lasting civilization is its confidence. Ability isn’t good enough. We have to shed any doubt that we can get there.
