THE GUIDING MINDS OF HUMAN KIND

Consciously and subconsciously all of us harbor the notion that between heaven and earth powers are at work which guide our lives on a predetermined path. We do not necessarily believe that this is true, and most of us will dismiss such notions as outright imaginary or primitive. But however rational we may be, it is very difficult to entirely disregard the feeling that eyes and minds beyond our reach somehow influence the opportunities that we have or the direction that we take.

Beyond our individual fate we also harbor certain notions about the time and circumstances in which we live. We may think that certain events are inevitable, for instance, as some people strongly “pre-sensed” the end of the world near the turn of the Millennium. Such convictions can also be more realistic and to some extent they may constitute a self-fulfilling prophecy. One example in history is the overriding belief among many people in Europe at the turn of the nineteenth century that war was a certainty in their time. It almost seemed as if the collective minds of the continent were driven into it by an invisible hand. Even today one might ask what caused the war that broke out in the late summer of 1914. A house of cards came tumbling down. Nobody in his or her right mind would have wanted the Great War as it actually unfolded, yet masses of people hailed its advent as if to celebrate their satisfaction that the prophecy had come true.




By the same token, in times of prosperity and general progress, we can think that it will last forever. Economic recessions invariably take us by surprise. Time and again the “boom and bust” of our economies are accompanied by unreasonable optimism and unreasonable pessimism respectively. In a longer term perspective, i.e. the perspective of an entire generation, the broad conditions of our youth frame the sense of the probable and the improbable in our own minds. The social and cultural context in which we grow up (including the absence or presence of religion) furthermore shape our view of the immediate and longer term future, including our subconscious sense of fate – of what may happen or of what is “bound to happen”. As illustrated above the general mood of a generation can have a direct or indirect impact on events that actually occur (even though thy may not be truly inevitable or necessary).

I am alluding to this interplay between the rational and the irrational as in our current time as many certainties of the past decades have increasingly come into question: our continued progress, the shared values and general coherence of our societies and indeed the very foundations of peace and security which have been self-evident in our world for an unprecedented long period. In a way, this outlook – at least superficially – very much resembles the situation described above, some hundred years ago. Many elements differ, for sure. Classic imperial conflicts have been replaced by manifold global tensions. The struggle to maintain - or achieve – social and economic equilibrium for an ever increasing world population is one in which nations and political regions face substantive stumbling blocks such as scarcity of resources and ecological deterioration. At the same time historical adversities and violent animosities especially directed at the western world constitute serious impediments for our traditional mechanisms of international consultation to reach long term consensus on major issues.

We most certainly have not reached a boiling point of global proportions to merit popular fatalism or another collective urge towards an armed resolution of prevailing conflicts. If anything, the past century has demonstrated the devastating outcome of such resolution – on would say – in highly convincing terms. However, as indicated above, it is not merely our rational deliberation or our memory of history which will determine the fate of our world in the foreseeable future, nor, for that matter, our personal fate. If anything, in our current time we witness another surge of popular sentiments which only two or three decades ago the great majority of the people in the western world would have considered perfectly unjustified if not insidious. This, unfortunately, includes racial, ethnic and cultural sentiments that most of us would have thought were left behind decisively some five decades ago.




Nothing in our world is predetermined. Yet our anxieties, our sense of the inevitable and the certainties we harbor have their own role to play, even if this would imply a course of action against all better wisdom. From our present point in time it is perhaps even more difficult than ever (at least considering the past three to four decades) to make a reasonable assessment of key factors of our world in ten, let alone twenty years time. Most of the postings in this blog address these factors. Indeed, they are manifold, complex and far reaching, affecting every dimension of our livelihood.

Our world has grown much beyond the mass hysteria – guided by monopolized mass propaganda – that led the people in the western world to the gates of hell just half a century ago. Most of us living today can not imagine the horror and devastation to which previous generations have been subjected. We should nonetheless realize that even in our own time people live in desperate circumstances. The shifting global power balance creates new influences and antagonisms which in turn can ignite irrational sentiments and new fatalism.




I, for one, do not believe that there is a guiding hand beyond our own – and those of our leaders - to steer clear from disaster. However, in countering populist anxieties rational policies or resolutions will prove sufficient only if they respond to the people’s inner convictions and beliefs at the same time. Nothing in the future is predetermined, but without satisfying at least some sense of destiny, human kind will progress – or otherwise – in a spiritual desert.

TRUTH AND THE PURSUIT OF MEANING

A new Bible should start with the origin of life and the evolution of species


The Bible has been a one-off historic accomplishment without precedent and most likely without any legendary literature of similar magnitude ever to follow. One could argue that only the Koran comes close but then, the Koran was largely drawn from Biblical resources.

Of course we could think of new religions in the distant future which feed on legends of their own making. They would however have to compete with the kind of factual records of history that Biblical writers lacked from the time of Abraham well unto the early years of Christianity. The absence of a mature historic tradition established the Bible’s immediate credibility as a historic document and as a source of religious inspiration.

In the mean time history and archeology have either corroborated Biblical claims of truth, sometimes only contextual, or they have added substantive question marks to them.



Especially the Roman Catholic tradition has been very keen, throughout the centuries, to defend both the factual truth of the Biblical accounts and its own authority in their interpretation. Even in hindsight we can still ask why. What interest did Rome have in its vehement assertion that Earth stood at the center of the Universe rather than being a mere planet circling an accidental sun in a vast galaxy? The answer has been obvious, for acknowledging this would principally undermine God’s unique position in the process of Creation. The same is true for accepting the facts of Earth’s geological history and the origin of life.

However, even though this position may seem evident, we might also argue that knowledge about the position and the origins of the Earth, including the origin of life, could have been around at the time that the Bible was written and still, God could be placed at the center of it. But this is only true if, at least in its contemporary use, the Bible is most of all seen as a metaphorical source of truth rather than a source of real facts. Even so, many Christian believers remain keen to know the ‘reliability’ of the Bible as if only factual accuracy can persuade them to appreciate the Bible’s underlying messages. The ongoing debate in certain circles, especially in the United States, between “creationists” and “evolutionists” reflects an extreme example of an unnecessary antagonism.

At the same time, and perhaps only to underscore the last observation, our geological and biological knowledge has been vastly extended over the centuries, but this hasn’t as yet solved every mystery. The spectacle of our Universe and the detailed view we have of its evolution still leave many questions unanswered. Moreover, the processes which led to the advent to complex living organisms have been unraveled only to a point. There remains an instant of ‘creation’ of which science might never fully uncover its actual nature.

Given above, I see no basic contradiction between accepting the fruits of discovery and science on the one hand and nourishing a belief system that embraces the concept of divine creation on the other – of one so wishes. It follows too that – in my view - ongoing efforts to disprove one with arguments of the other are futile if not outright ridiculous.



Should everything therefore remain where it is? First of all, there is no reason for any religion to adopt history or science as its foundation. Truth is a very broad concept if only it isn‘t used in absolutist terms. But, secondly, I believe that any religion could draw many salient points at the heart of human morality from them and add a broader sense of purpose or meaning to them. Neither can be provided by science or by any ‘knowledge’, not even at a distance.

People have a choice to embrace (or not) a religious impulse in their lives to provide these underlying answers. The ‘reliability’ of biblical stories or similar books nor the debate about the factual history of our planet will ever satisfy them in this respect. I am tempted to say, on the contrary. Facts are arbitrary and never absolute. It is what we make of them that counts.

But even this may not suffice to broaden our perspective in addressing prevailing conflicting claims of religious versus secular antagonists. They may well never be resolved as long as their arguments fly cross-purpose from one side to the other. There may well be as many good arguments to re-design the concept of religion as those relating to the scope and implications of science.

One can not expect that such a process would readily arise out of the established traditions on either side, even less so given the present-day persistence by which certain religious leaders and scientists profess their certainties.



But we could also say that it is a people’s choice. We could make it a collective project, to write a new book of human inspiration, the assembled wisdom of all humanity. I, for one, would take the logic and the beauty of evolution – such as the fundamental urge to live that we share with all other living things, plants and animals – as its basic premise.

The more I think of it, the more I believe this is a good idea.

A FUTURE THAT CAN ENERGIZE

Let’s make good use of the world wide talents

In November 2010 New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman commented on a recent poll among Americans by Rasmussen Reports, showing that 47% of the respondents think that “the best days are in the past”.(*) Friedman noted that just before President Obama was inaugurated, 48 percent said our best days were still ahead and 35 percent said they had come and gone. “This is a disturbing trend”, he observed. I can only concur. It is most likely that this trend is not limited to American citizens only.

Tomorrow is humanity’s unborn child that most of us today would rather abort than nourish to its healthy arrival. We fear the future, collectively. We see all the challenges that we seem incapable to overcome. Our main reflex is to defend what we have and to give way to reactionary impulses whenever change threatens us. US President Obama’s campaign yell “Yes we can!” has been smothered not merely by the vocal forces of domestic Republican conservatism. He faces a much more profound and widespread spiritual paralysis. Across the globe, progress-as-once-we-knew-it has come to a grinding halt amidst an ever rising pile of unpaid bills and unresolved conflicts. We have amassed manifold agendas that (largely because of this) have become overburdened with demands to which we can not effectively respond: the need for clean and sustainable energy, the need to address major climate issues (I dare not speak of “climate change”), world population, international peace and security – just to give a shortlist. (*)

Along the way we drain the resources required to groom and inspire the next generation – our schools and universities – beyond repair. We allow the distribution of wealth and power to grow more and more distorted. At the same time we – willingly – submit ourselves to mass serfdom in the hands of ever larger corporate interests with ever diminishing accountability. We do it willingly, because we do not want to control the very source of their power, our own insatiable material greed. If I were a God fearing Christian, I would say that we can now see what God desperately wanted to help avoid when he warned Adam and Eve against eating from the tree of knowledge.


Utilizing every source of knowledge

But we can not wish to go back to paradise. There is no future there. Only knowledge will help us forward. More knowledge, applied in greater – collective - wisdom. If we wish to fight the ignorance that allegedly threatens us from outside, cloaked – as we see it – in vicious terrorism, then indeed wisdom our best weapon, not bullets. We should recognize that today’s terrorism is an expression of a widespread outrage, even among reasonable people, against the ongoing usurpation by ‘western civilization’ of almost every corner of the Earth, its resources, its culture, its mindset – and its sense of deprivation. If we look at the balance of happiness in our present world, western civilization has done as much to enhance it as to destroy it.

Indeed it is a sobering and irrevocable reality: ever since European ships set out to explore the globe, more paradises have perished than have ever been regained afterwards. In the process the regions – nations, people – of our world have grown too interdependent to simply let go- we have no choice but to redefine our sense of a sustainable future together and eradicate existing antagonisms by offering real perspective.


Making life sustainable for all

Most of all there is the need for a perspective, not merely “solutions” or “change”. To overcome present challenges we will need to look beyond them, in substantive terms. If anything, history has proven that policies merely aiming at problem solving are insufficient to mobilize the critical mass of the electorate to support them. Facing the challenges is a condition but not an inspiring, energizing motive under any circumstance. We should have confidence in our ability to utilize every inventiveness, indeed: every possibility which the tree of knowledge offers us, to help our world become a better place for many – not merely for the happy few.

Lastly, however much we have already burdened the lives of our descendants to unprecedented scale, the future still is free. If we withdraw from it, out of fear or out of sheer reluctance to reset our priorities, we will indeed have made it powerless. US President Obama, not any other world leader can effectively rise to that challenge unless the opportunities are offered, ready at hand, with competent people to make it work. I only need to recall the conditions under which President Kennedy was confident enough to announce his “Man on Moon”, a project that inspired many people for more than a decade. It had countless spin-offs in a wide range of industries.

We do not require a “Man on Mars” to match this far reaching ambition. We better focus on our own planet, even though at this point I would hesitate to pin point its nature and scope. Moreover, it seems to me that the process of getting to such project – a wide ranging global ambition in substantive terms – is at least of similar importance as its actual parameters.


Developing clean, unlimited energy

The world has the means – the technology and the talent, indeed: our collective wisdom – to make this a viable proposition We can connect every mind and every inspiration to it. If designing a inspirational future is what the world wide web has been made for, then we truly have proven that our information age makes sense for many generations to come.

----
(*) See:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/28/opinion/28friedman.html?src=me&ref=homepage

REDEFINING PROGRESS

What is the next stage of human advancement?


The political trend across Europe is strong push toward a predominance of the center-right. Although their majorities are generally marginal, the left is invariably weak and divided. In the public debate left-wing policies and preferences have become subject of widespread scorn. It mirrors a similar trend in the United States where right wing conservatives are far more articulate and vehement than those who belong to the moderate left or democratic electorate.


America's right-wing assertion of the nature of the present administration

The underling development however seems more complex than a mere shift to the right. We experience an evolution in many different dimensions – and in many directions. It challenges our opinions and values about the elements that constitute right vs. left-wing or conservatism versus progressiveness as these qualifications have guided our view of our political society over the past decades. At the same time our own values shift. What was considered right-wing thirty years ago can now be a perfectly legitimate opinion of ‘the left’, but the reverse is equally true.

First of all, to describe the political spectrum along one – left-right – axis has always been a gross simplification of the actual dividing lines among the electorate and the political parties, especially in Europe. They can have different views about social and moral issues and economic freedom, about governance (more or less autocratic), about religious issues, personal freedoms etc. in many different compositions. There are dividing lines too along specific issues, such as environment and security, or, especially at this point, minority issues and the attitude towards the Arab-Muslim population. In addition the sentiments of the electorate depend on their current economic and social situation. This may have been the case throughout recent history, but in times of economic adversity it is one of the defining factors that has new pertinence.


In search of new horizons

Uncertainty, economic stagnation and – as I have indicated many times in this blog – an apparent exhaustion of inspirational ideas and concepts stir the electorate on an as yet ill defined path. The conservative or right-wing populace is fighting in defense of its vested interests, or so it seems, whilst the people who traditionally belong to the progressive (leftist) part of the electorate are grappling for an answer with an equally conservative attitude.

The implication of his stand-off situation is that nothing moves at all. Belt-tightening and more stringent legal provisions in respect of civilians and (financial) markets dominate the political agenda. Every idea of social or economic reform, let alone of seriously addressing more wide ranging issues such as energy and environment have been effectively pushed out of view.

The clashes are not any longer about ideas but about the priority of interests to be served. This is a far cry from the notion that there is a future to be conquered in which we enhance the conditions of our societies beyond the horizon of vested positions and obsolete ideologies. Lamentations about this – largely among a dwindling class of intellectuals – are more outspoken in the US than in Europe, where societal issues are most prominent in headlines and columns. But this may be just a marginal difference. On both sides of the Atlantic the public debate has vulgarized and the exercise of progressive idealism has become a highly suspect pastime of an increasingly unhappy few.

This is not because no one cares to listen or their ideas are overruled by the noisy conservative populace, it is rather that at this point it appears to be extremely difficult to effectively formulate substantive, countervailing progressive concepts. In fact, what constitutes “progress” is fundamentally in question. Although in Europe this seems to be a concern for the left most of all, this is a shared issue for left and right, as “progress” is not necessarily a monopoly of the left only. For most of the 20th Century the engine of progress was firmly in the hands of enlightened industrialists, and this included a fair amount of social improvements. Post-war social welfare programs as they proliferated in (then: Western) Europe would have been unthinkable without the solid foundation that was laid in this period.

Perhaps this is what we should remind ourselves of in our own time. The societal fabric is weakening because our economies are halting in their very roots. The engine of welfare generation requires all our attention. The other side of the coin is that our present-day industrialists have a major social responsibility next to their commercial responsibilities. I have touched upon this in an earlier posting (See August 2010: Power and responsibility in our future world). Secondly, as I have indicated in this blog at many occasions, we should reassess the traditional distinctions between our own roles as consumers and as responsible citizens. To a large extent this must come naturally, as in our own private lives we do not readily distinguish between the commercial and the political where it concerns the progress we make ourselves. For instance, the benefits of the Internet are as much a result of private initiative as of public infrastructure.

Nonetheless, however we look at it, some major – and very pressing – public issues remain which do demand a concerted effort of both commercial and public institutions. Left nor right can escape them, and resolving these issues in my view will largely determine true progress in the future decades.

There are many choices to be made of which some – but not all – indeed will depend on our priorities in political terms. “Progress” nor progressiveness point at one single defined track. We better clarify the various options – and their divergence – next to the narrow options, the choices – we might say – that we do not have. Decisions that we simply have to take in order for our world not to disintegrate in a longer term stagnation. Effective leadership seems to be more crucial at this stage than political denomination.


The UK's new young leadership at the left

In Europe, examples of such forward looking leadership are not absent, but they are a minority, for instance in the UK where young and buoyant individuals, all in their forties, have taken the center stage from left to right. But elsewhere in Europe, the situation seems more hesitant, for instance in my own country, The Netherlands, where many people mistake noisy (and largely resentful) populism with truthful guidance. We will get beyond this, I have no doubt. In the mean time there is ample room, and ample need, for parties in at all ends of the spectrum to readdress their own sense of the future and of the partnerships they require to get there, whether in the political arena or in the private – and most likely: in both.

IN DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY

Across Europe the increasing influence of right-wing extremism challenges the ideal of a civic democracy based on decency and a sense of compromise. It raises the question whether our democracies can survive when the populace votes by stamping its feet in response to ad hoc anxieties or raw self-interest and social exclusion. At the root of this development is the mounting uneasiness with the presence of – what people see as – an alien Muslim culture. This sentiment is further exacerbated by the severe economic troubles that have hit the entire western world. The current circumstances are an eerie reminder of the situation in the late 1920s and early 1930s when democracies were swept away by militant right-wing dictatorships attacking our civilization at its very roots. Of course, the comparison is flawed by many accounts, if only because no such militancy has surfaced in our present day nor are the economic prospects as depressing as in that particular period. But even if in terms of severity our present world is a paradise of wealth and peace compared with the conditions of the 1930s, we should not turn our eyes away from certain current trends which of themselves can not be described in diminishing terms.


New cultural elements cause widespread uneasiness and enstrangement

First of all there are above societal trends, which I would categorize as follows:

• social values have become diffuse as have the societal codes of behavior; there is a marked rudeness and impoliteness in the public debate and a popular culture which heralds hedonistic vulgarism;
• old left-wing solidarity has been rather rudely shifted aside in favor of uninhibited materialist egoism;
• equality and non-discrimination have to be defended against mounting stigmatization and outright discrimination of minorities such as Muslims, Roma

Each of them undermines the integrity of our societies which constitute the foundation of our public institutions and of the written and unwritten rules by which they have thus far been able to serve the common good.

Secondly, I see parallel a trend which in my view is largely a consequence of the above. The past decade has shown increasingly erratic voter behavior, with the public exerting pressure on parties to offer immediate satisfaction rather than sound long term views and nourishing leadership based on populism. This development coincides with a gradual shift in generations. The ideals of the past four decades have worn out but few substantial concepts or visions as yet have replaced them. Ironically the emphasis among younger generation appear to be more conservative than that of the previous generations, thus reinforcing the shift to the right in the broader social-economic spectrum.


Rightwing populist Geert Wilders of the Netherlands

Admittedly, all of the above is a matter of perception too. I am part of the aging Baby-boom generation and thus it is only natural that my observations include an element of regret (not necessarily discontent) about the general drift of our societies and the diminishing relevance of the civic values by which I have grown up. Yet I also believe it is more than just that; more than a mere difference in taste or personal preferences.

Evolution of culture is one thing, but it is very difficult to ignore the potential harmful consequences of societal disintegration and of a lack of responsibility for the longer term. Major challenges lay ahead but they have somehow disappeared from the agenda, in part because of short term financial pressures but also, I believe, because they offer little appeal for politicians to gain – or sustain - their popular support. Issues such energy, climate change, maintaining the fabric of world peace and security, including the fabric of the European Union itself, have almost, so it seems, become suspect. Anyone who raises it with any degree of seriousness as simply cast aside. It is not a conscious process, but it is distinct phenomenon: our real concerns being driven away inadvertently by our short term hypes and anxieties.


Wrung from history: Europe's institution for peace and security

In the end, this will undermine the credibility of our democracies too, and it is in its ultimate defense that I raise this topic. In their extremes the above trends, if unchecked, could well lead to an increased call for authoritarian rule, both as a result of sustained discontent and of even greater challenges being posed on our societies. They may either come from within or outside – or both. Natural disasters, armed conflict at larger scale, mass insurgence against new shortages and so on. Under those circumstances the constitution of our democracies will come under new, additional pressure. It is not difficult to paint a scenario in which all of these different existing and possible future developments arrive at a boiling point in which our democracies crumble largely because we have forgotten how to run them properly.

Civic responsibility and the orderly conduct of our public interests are a concern to us all, whatever preferences we have or whatever choices we make. Political parties should be responsive to the public’s needs but should also be able to project substantive leadership beyond short term pressures. All of it seems obvious and almost needless to say.

Yet so many things that may have been obvious are not any longer. Civic education can not be taken for granted. Democracy requires tolerance and responsibility at all levels, and this includes the voter. Whether or not historic precedents are relevant in all respects, we can at least derive serious lessons from them and steer clear from unnecessary disaster.

THE COSTLY DECADE AFTER 9/11

In the aftermath of the 9/11 commemorations people in America and elsewhere in the world may forget the sequence of events that followed and which in hindsight could be viewed as a disaster at least of similar magnitude. I was reminded of this when some young friends asked me to watch Michael Moore’s documentary Fahrenheit 911. It has been a while since I last saw it. “Will we get opinions only, or facts?” they asked beforehand. As far as I knew it largely offered facts, images, but obviously construed in such a way to see the events from a specific angle. And this is what I told them.

My young friends are adolescents now, but at the time they still were kids. So this was the first opportunity for them to observe and evaluate for themselves the successive actions of the Bush Administration after September 2001, ultimately leading up to the military intervention in Iraq. They ware truly horrified. Of course, in this documentary Michael Moore leads us to see the pre- and post-9/11 events as one huge conspiracy in which President George W. Bush served as nothing more than as a dumb witted pawn in the hand of corporate interests out to get as much profit our of Middle East oil as they could get their hands on. The dramatic onslaught of 9/11, in their eyes, served as a blessing, not as a tragedy. The Republican-Corporate elite concocted the case for democracy and freedom in the Middle-East to the benefit of their own pocket books and in the process sacrificed the lives of many more American people – young men in particular – than the number of people who lost their lives in the initial terrorist attack. And even though this is a very subjective, highly cynical interpretation, it is very difficult to escape the notion that the American people were misled in believing that in toppling the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein, something effective was done to avert a substantive and immediate threat to their own security. It was by no means a response to an actual, immediate threat of terror but rather a pre-emptive action to safeguard America’s economic interests.


The great sacrifice after 9/11

I have been highly critical of the Bush Administration throughout its tenure and even though I would not readily concede to conspiracy theories or to US presidents serving their own interests only I can not help but see the entire history of the years between 2000 and 2005 as a tragic mishap for which taxpayers and citizens world wide are paying a colossal price. What strikes me most of all is how we tend to forget this and blame the current economic slump and lack of new progress on the present-day administration.

Massive military spending, hundreds of billions of dollars, went into a war that as been questionable from the onset and it has drained the American – and world - economy to such extent that it wasn’t able to sufficiently counter the burst of the financial bubble that ensued in parallel. We got stuck, in America and elsewhere, and much of it is to blame on the expensive illusions that have been kept alive, indeed by very self-centered interests – not merely of politicians and corporations - throughout the past decade.


The president is who is largely blamed for the consequences of the past

It will take the western economies at least another decade to recapture sufficient financial strength and inspiration to get on with the job of making the world a better place. The implication is that a great many urgent innovations in energy, ecology and market efficiency will take much longer to materialize and that they will only come about if governments accept sustained austere budget policies for a considerable period. All of this will keep people across the world – including people in areas of conflict – on a tight string and this may again trigger new outbreaks of violence.


When will new stability and growth return?

Seen from this angle, I much regret that I can not tell my young friends that any time soon the outlook of our world will substantially improve. Many uncertainties remain and thus they too will pay part of the bill of the wasteful previous years. At the same time it is important that they grasp the historic context in which they make their own decisions, from every possible viewpoint. The conundrums of their world are not an act of God but the result of willful actions of people, both for better and for worse. They too can dream of their own contributions and learn from the judgments of people in the past.