Reflections on the future of Humanity

Friday, January 23, 2009

NO MAN ON MARS IN THE COMING DECADE



Our planet is grounded to solve the issues at home first of all

One of the missing topics in President Obama’s inaugural address was Space and America’s future endeavors beyond the confines of our planet. I have no doubt that he considered the subject for the speech, but consciously decided not to include it. For he must have realized that back in the sixties, a period from which he draws many of his inspirations, America’s ambition to put a man on the Moon spawned many different technological – and inspirational - initiatives which multiplied the single benefit of mastering the art of Space travel. Kennedy’s early decision to make this ambition a hallmark of his Presidency, taken at substantial risk, helped build a strong focus across the entire western world on superior achievements in a broad area of technology which otherwise would not have been realized. And in part it shaped our cultural focus. Next to the emergence of pop culture and popular rebellion, “2001 - A Space Odyssey” epitomizes the character of this memorable decade, which sadly had to do without Kennedy to actually see it unroll.

Most certainly we live in a time when great ambitions are needed. In general terms Obama has captured this need in magnificent terms in many different dimensions. One can therefore assume that his decision not to include a renewed or strengthened mission outer space is an immediate function of his understanding of America’s – and the world’s – first priorities. My interpretation of his approach is reinforced when I go through the newly published agenda of Obama’s administration (http://www.whitehouse.gov/). There is no reference of any prominence of a specific plan regarding further US Space programs.

Nonetheless there is one paragraph which refers to the Administration’s stated interest regarding Space:

Ensure Freedom of Space: The Obama-Biden Administration will restore American leadership on space issues, seeking a worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites. They will thoroughly assess possible threats to U.S. space assets and the best options, military and diplomatic, for countering them, establishing contingency plans to ensure that U.S. forces can maintain or duplicate access to information from space assets and accelerating programs to harden U.S. satellites against attack.


The priority

This paragraph can be found under the heading of Defense. Space is (or remains) primarily positioned in the domain of the Military, which is where it was established in the fifties and sixties as well. No wonder the paragraph largely reads as a defensive stance: the restoration and safeguarding of freedom in Space.

No reference to this is made in the sphere of economy or technology, where apparently the Space program (apart from the ongoing availability of satellites) offers no special incentive or opportunity, according to those who crafted Obama’s policy principles.

During his Presidential campaign. Obama’s team did have a close look at NASA’s current plans for the future. Some reported that he was specifically interested in these plans. It is an other indication that the absence of ‘Mars’ in his inaugural speech was far from a haphazard omission. Economic gloom, climate change, health care and education all rank higher than any farfetched dream without immediate benefit to America’s taxpayers.

At one time in Nov 2008, one of Obama’s top aides clarified his position:

“Obama believes we should continue developing the next generation of space vehicles, and complete the international space station. While Obama would delay plans to return to moon and push on to Mars, Obama would continue unmanned missions, and use NASA to monitor the forces and effects of climate change, support scientific research, and maintain surveillance to strengthen national security. Obama also believes we need to keep weapons out of space.” (Source: http://www.spacepolitics.com/).

Again the motives seem largely defensive - or protective- rather than offensive or entrepreneurial. Clearly this is not the hallmark enterprise of the forthcoming decade, as new energy and climate control most certainly will be.


The world we live in

Still, if Kennedy’s outreach to the Moon back in 1961 was largely inspired by pressing competition (i.c. from the Soviet Union, who had surpassed the US by getting the first man ever into an orbit around Earth), today’s competition can not be entirely overlooked. The Russians have in the mean time become collaborators, not competitors. No indication exists that Space is anywhere near Moscow’s current issues. But the Chinese have stepped up their development of Space programs and may well become a serious player in this field. Although the chances of China surpassing the US in scale or advancement of their Space efforts are very slim indeed,

Any Space plan that is presented as a mere end in itself (like, most likely, a man on Mars) will be met by Obama’s administration with great reservation. Competition, real progress, measurable economic benefit etc. must be the key considerations if a continued substantial Space effort is to survive in the forthcoming period. We should be surprised if at one point such effort will rise in stature after all, for instance if some ingenious system of solar panels is to be sent into orbit to “harness the energy of the Sun” (one prominent feature of Obama’s inaugural speech).

But perhaps, at best, we will have a good few new men on the Moon by 2020.

No comments: